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Forecasting superstars? Excel can’t do it. People prove it.

  • Writer: Robert Eckelman
    Robert Eckelman
  • 3 days ago
  • 2 min read

First-Round Hype Fades. Hustle Endures. In football & in business

I have been glued to football lately, not just because the season’s heating up, but because this is the stretch where the truth shows up. The big contract players either earn their paycheck or get exposed. The overlooked guys, they rise from obscurity and deliver like Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Trevor Lawrence, Daniel Jones, Drake May (a new face and doing great)_. Over the last 3 weeks, I have seen some amazing one-handed end zone catches from players I have never heard of.


Take last week’s MNF matchup: Panthers vs. 49ers. Bryce Young #1 overall pick, franchise savior Vs Brock Purdy literally the last pick in his draft, “Mr. Irrelevant.”


Final score: 49ers 20, Panthers 10.


Talent matters, sure but football keeps reminding us that pedigree doesn’t win games. People do.


The league is full of “can’t-miss” prospects who missed by a mile: Jameis Winston, Johnny Manziel, JaMarcus Russell, Trey Lance… we can even toss in RG3 and Mariota (still playing just not the forecasted superstar)


And then you’ve got the outliers:

  • Tom Brady — 6th round.

  • Kurt Warner — undrafted grocery-store stocker turned MVP.

  • Joe Montana, Brett Favre, Russell Wilson — none were first-round darlings.


Every year the experts predict the next superstar. Every year those predictions explode on impact.

Why? Because the intangibles hunger, resilience, adaptability, leadership all refuse to sit neatly in a spreadsheet.

You can measure arm strength, speed, height, Wonderlic scores… But you can’t measure fire.


This is where the analogy smacks business square in the face:


Small companies win exactly like Brock Purdy wins (we can add in young QB's like Drake Maye, Bo Nix and more) with grit, clarity, and zero entitlement. The logo doesn’t deliver results. The person does.


So the next time you’re evaluating a vendor, partnership, or proposal, don’t fall for the “first-round pick” trap.


A massive company with the wrong point person can underdeliver spectacularly.

A smaller, hungrier company with the right person can absolutely blow past expectations.


Forecasting superstars? Excel can’t do it. People prove it.


#CTV and #streaming are always getting better for viewers and advertisers

 
 
 
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