What happens when you merge an AMC Gremlin witha Ford Pinto?

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You get a bigger car company.

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But do you get a better car?

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That's what keeps running through my mind as I read the coverage of the Cox | Charter merger.

And before anyone gets upset, I'm not rooting againsteither company. Quite the opposite. I spent a large part of my career in the cable and television business. I hope they figure it out.

But let's call the transition what it is.

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Cable video is losing subscribers. Broadband is as well with some strong competitors moving in.

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Combining two companies doesn't change that trajectory. It changes the scale.

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If two companies each have 10 million video subscribersand each loses 5%, they're each down 500,000 subscribers.

Combine them and you have 20 million subscribers.

Sounds impressive.

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But at the same 5% decline, you're now reporting a lossof 1 million subscribers.

The company got bigger.

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The underlying trend didn't get better.

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I'm also reading that the combination creates substantially more streaming advertising inventory.

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Technically, the combined company controls moreinventory.

from an advertiser's perspective, that's notnecessarily the same thing as creating more available inventory.

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If you're working with quality DSPs and have strong direct and PMP relationships with publishers, much of that inventory was already available when Cox and Charter were separate companies.

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Combining ownership doesn't magically createmore viewers or more impressions.

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Now, could this still be a very smart merger?

Absolutely.

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Scale matters. Data matters. Technology matters.Operating efficiencies matter. Negotiating leverage matters.

And maybe bringing these companies together helps thembuild something much stronger for the future.

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But cable also needs to recognize why consumers left in the first place.

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High prices. Poor customer experiences.

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Friction when you wanted to add or cancel something.

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I still remember waiting at home for the cable guy because my appointment window was something ridiculous like 8 a.m. to 4p.m.

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Think about that customer experience.

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Streaming came along and essentially said:

Watch what you want.

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When you want.

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Subscribe when you want.

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Cancel when you want.

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No eight-hour appointment window required.

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That's bigger than a technology shift.

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It's a consumer-expectation shift.

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So yes, Cox and Charter together will be bigger.

But putting a Gremlin and a Pinto in the same garage doesn't give you a Ferrari.

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The real measure of this merger won't be how impressivethe combined numbers look on Day One.

It will be whether they can change the trajectory by Day 1,000.

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